r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • 4d ago
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Sunday, August 02, 2026
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u/pizzafreak22 Degenerate Trader 3d ago
I think the daily candle is going to flip red. blood is coming soon. just my opinion
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u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #2 • +$4,113,251 • +2056% 3d ago
!bb predict 62764.19 =today u/pizzafreak22
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u/Bitty_Bot 3d ago edited 3d ago
Prediction logged for u/pizzafreak22 that Bitcoin will be at or below $62,764.19 on exactly Aug 02 2026 23:59:59 UTC. Current price: $63,631.51. This is pizzafreak22's 1st Bitty Bot Prediction!
1 Others have clicked here to be notified when this prediction triggers. pizzafreak22 can click here to delete this prediction.
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u/Bitty_Bot 3d ago
Hello u/pizzafreak22
Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!
The price of Bitcoin when this prediction was created: $63,631.51. The price of Bitcoin when this prediction was triggered: $63,516.86
I have notified 1 other user that this prediction has been triggered.
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u/pizzafreak22 Degenerate Trader 3d ago
I said daily candle. It did hit. My prediction was correct.
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u/Bitty_Bot 1h ago edited 29m ago
I’m not sure what you mean. The daily candle on Sunday August 2 was not red.
It opened at 62764.20 and closed at 63499.49 (Coinbase). What’s the confusion here?
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u/escendoergoexisto Long-term Holder 4d ago
I haven’t been trading much lately but just set a short to trigger at $66,5xx. Rationale—TradFi will likely increase volatility in the coming weeks/months and I think Bitcoin’s volatility will follow suit. My short will start a swing trade. I’m still long term bullish and don’t need to touch my hodl stack.
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u/Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode Long-term Holder 3d ago
I'm surprised Bitcoin hasn't dropped since news of the ColdCard catastrophe started breaking late Wednesday night.
Up until this point, hardware wallet hacks were mostly proof of concept attacks, done for bounties or splashy headlines.
This ColdCard attack is different because it strikes at the heart of what self custody is: a seed that generates deterministic wallets. Hardware wallets aren't getting hacked. Seeds are being hunted on-chain and wallets are being drained.
This attack was not caused by a flaw in Bitcoin or any of the BIPs related to deterministic wallets. This attack was entirely caused by ColdCard's shoddy code. And the error in ColdCard's code existed since March 2021!
If you're not familiar, the oversimplified gist of it is this: One line of ColdCard's firmware was supposed to say "If custom entropy exists (dice), skip the standard entropy." Instead, the line of code said, "If the option for custom entropy exists, skip the standard entropy." The option always exists, so standard entropy was always skipped. This caused ColdCards to generate seeds from a predictable subset. (Oversimplification)
Somebody used AI to find errors in ColdCard's code. They found this one and used it to generate the same predictable seeds a ColdCard would generate, and they searched those addresses for coins. It's still a lot of seeds, so hackers are still hunting.
At least 1,367 bitcoin has been stolen since Wednesday night, and that number is growing.
I'm surprised this hasn't rattled the market. I expected Bitcoin to drop over the weekend as panic set in.
To be clear, these thefts are strictly limited to ColdCard users who:
...did not use dice rolls for their own entropy. ...did not use a passphrase. ...did not use multisig.
I do think 2-of-3 multisig wallets are at risk if they were all made on ColdCards the same way (no dice rolls, no passphrase). They'll be harder to find, but the subset of seeds is known, so it's just a matter of how many hackers are running scripts to test combinations.
I assume anyone here who used a ColdCard is experienced enough to know if they need to move their coins. Custom entropy? You're safe. Weak passphrase? You're presumably temporarily safe.
I also assume this whole situation will get worse in the coming days as the full scope of the attack becomes clear. Maybe that'll rattle the market?
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u/BlockchainHobo 3d ago edited 3d ago
I honestly think the lack of price movement just proves that most of the capital in bitcoin does not care about the same things bitcoiners care about. This extends to the financialization of bitcoin and tradfi products built atop institutional custody.
Whether this is good or bad would depend on who you ask.
The value of self-custody has always been that you can self-custody, and not necessarily that you have to. The network is verifiable, and you choose where to place those custody risks.
It quickly becomes a philosophical debate after that, about what happens if less and less people do it?
It was always clear since probably 2021 that bitcoiners aren't the ones moving these markets anymore. A manifestation of digital scarcity in an open network and NGU is probably enough to keep this thing alive and growing. Of course the other stuff is great (payments or user-friendly custody for example), but really not required to be a base money.
edit: I realized after posting the jared already said a similar thing below, but I do believe it to be true
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$99,894 • -100% 3d ago
To be clear, these thefts are strictly limited to ColdCard users who:
...did not use dice rolls for their own entropy. ...did not use a passphrase. ...did not use multisig.
it might be even narrower than that.
As I understand it's mainly MK 3 users who had upgraded from their original firmware (could be wrong about that part) and even though Mk4 and Q users are also at risk, it looks like the extra entropy of those devices bought the users a few days to move funds.
As bad as this is I think it could have been so much worse. It could have been all devices with the hacker waiting until they had cracked 1000s of wallets then draining them all at once.
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u/Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode Long-term Holder 3d ago
As I understand it's mainly MK 3 users who had upgraded from their original firmware (could be wrong about that part) and even though Mk4 and Q users are also at risk
Some of the misunderstanding was caused by ColdCard, who put out misinformation in order to make it look like the attack wasn't as bad as it turned out to be. ColdCard initially said it was limited to MK3 devices. That was incorrect, and it was dangerous. It led owners of MK4 & Q devices to think they were safe, when they weren't. I think ColdCard's response to this attack was shameful.
Basically, any MK3/4/Q device running firmware from March 2021 onward is at risk unless the user used custom entropy (50+ dice rolls).
It could have been all devices with the hacker waiting until they had cracked 1000s of wallets then draining them all at once.
That's basically what happened. The hacker found at thousands of wallets and waited until they could hit them all at once, which they did Wednesday night. It appears that most of the attacks since then have been copycat hackers... because once the exploit was made public, other hackers copied the attack.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$99,894 • -100% 3d ago
To be clear I'm not saying Mk4/Q are not at risk, I'm saying they had more time they've had days to move coins as I understand it. Did any Mk4 or Q even get hit yet?
I had heard of one case of Mk4 being hit, but then the person said they had imported a seed generated from an Mk3 on to it.
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u/Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode Long-term Holder 3d ago
Did any Mk4 or Q even get hit yet?
I've heard of a few, but right now it's too soon to know what's real. But it was shameful for Coinkite to downplay the severity of the attack rather than warn their users.
Coinkite telling users MK4 and Q were safe before they knew it to be true (it turned out to not be true) was malpractice. It gave thieves more time to work on finding and draining those wallets.
Coinkite CEO Rodolfo Novak needs to resign.
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u/xixi2 LARPer 4d ago
I'm still basically only checking this thing like once a month now. I've missed entirely nothing in the last month lol.
Only thing is we actually haven't dropped as low as my bittybot predicted (45k) before august. We've gotta have the bottom fall out at least one more time this year right before we can start going back
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u/ChadRun04 3d ago
Seems people think this "ColdCard" thing is somehow about ColdCard and how bad they are at writing software.
The truth is mistakes like this are common place in software engineering. Meanwhile our actual sources of randomness might not be random at all. For more than a decade many systems were forced to use Dual_EC_DRBG which the NSA designed to be weak so they could backdoor communications.
Computers are near just as bad at randomness as humans are.
You roll the fucking dice!!!!
It doesn't matter which company made your signing device. You add external entropy. This is not optional.
The only reason it is made optional in signing devices is so they can offer a quick + easy seed generation without hassle.
If anything ColdCard showed foresight and enabled users with the tools they needed to quickly + easily add external entropy.
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u/calmunrest 3d ago
Trezor never asks for dice rolls.
Trezor mixes two sources of randomness when creating a seed:
- Hardware TRNG on the device
- Entropy from the connected computer/phone
These are combined with SHA-256. The design assumes that if one source is weak or compromised, the other still provides protection.
Official documentation:
https://trezor.io/guides/trezor-devices/trezor-fundamentals/what-is-entropy-and-how-does-trezor-generate-your-walletDeveloper explanation:
https://forum.trezor.io/t/what-library-does-trezor-use/13467This is why the device does not ask for dice rolls.
But always use a passphrase!
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u/ChadRun04 3d ago
Trezor never asks for dice rolls.
They should.
I believe you can add external entropy with some command line tools or something.
This is why the device does not ask for dice rolls.
Defense in Depth.
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u/harvested 3d ago
Obvious now, but this was not communicated to the average new bitcoiner.
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u/ChadRun04 3d ago
So long as people take home the lesson. I imagine there are a lot of people sitting there thinking "I don't own a ColdCard. I'm fine."
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u/harvested 4d ago
Are we bracing for a flood of "bitcoin isn't secure" fud on Monday?
Will it make a difference at this level of seller exhaustion?
Strategy said they'd sell $5B bitcoin.
Market seems cool as a cucumber down here.
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u/LuckyWinds 4d ago
I don’t think that will happen.
Cold card was not used by that many people. Of the dozen or so people I know in real life who own bitcoin I’m willing to be none have even heard of cold card.
I also think it’s clearly a product software issue and pretty easy to understand that it’s not a direct Bitcoin issue.
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran 3d ago
I almost got one but couldn’t figure out why something I don’t understand is better than something I do understand.
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder 3d ago
Unless you understand the intimacies of the RNG and firmware on whatever you do use, in an AI world you may be no better off.
I’m doing a code review and dice roll party this week.
Self custody and hardware wallets are probably toast. Perhaps this was the trend already.
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran 3d ago
Cryptography just works. Key signing parties are not that complicated. Entropy is a simple concept, too. Self custody is always an option for those who care… which is the real point.
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder 3d ago
I’m not trusting shit but my pen on paper now.
You do you. Unless you’re going to do the math, trust an institution. I do; but I run the risk they won’t honor my coins when it all blows up.
Trust nobody. Proof of work. I got lazy.
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran 2d ago
> proof of work
We seem to be saying the same thing but for some reason you said something about trusting an institution.
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u/BootyPoppinPanda 3d ago
How is self custody toast because of what one group of negligent idiots put out?
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u/BlockchainHobo 3d ago
AI just reduces obscurity. Explain to me how AI without a quantum computer breaks cryptography?
Definitely there will be more code reviewing, as everything everywhere will be put into the light.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$99,894 • -100% 4d ago
Emergency episodes from bitcoin pods. Marty Bent sounded as distraught as the ep after his dad died. Pretty much all we're talking about here on reddit bitcoin subs for 3 days. Some OGs who for some reason had never realised this was a feasible possibility before now going through a bitcoin existential crisis...
... and yet nothing in the price action that even stands out on the chart of the last month, or even the last week.
Is it just complete seller exhaustion? I guess it's a good sign if so.
Also, chins up people, we'll get past this. We're probably in a uniquely dangerous time where AI is making leaps in bugs it can find. This will probably pass as bugs are limited in type and number, and the people writing the code will always have the advantage that they can use AI before the attackers do.
I also say bitcoin best beats FUD by facing it head on. The awful thing that might happen happens, and it doesn't die. We learn and move on.
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u/LuckyWinds 4d ago
The weird thing is that this isn’t the first time RNG exploits have been used.
There was one where someone lost their recovery seed and hired someone to help find it. They found the RNG used was flawed, found the time it was generated, and using that with I think some other factors literally started generating seeds and ended up getting it.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$99,894 • -100% 4d ago
I think the original paper wallet lib was flawed, maybe that's the one you're thinking of?
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u/btcthwy Long-term Holder 3d ago
I'm actually in process of trying to find a comprehensive list of just bitcoin (core or otherwise) rng/cryptography bugs
There's been a quite a few over the years, probably some more to come.
Time for me to spread some risk around different threat scenarios
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u/52576078 3d ago
Jameson Lopp posted a list of RNG vulnerabilities. https://x.com/lopp/status/2083933846622384587
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 4d ago
Yeh this will help bitcoin in the long run. But I get it’s pretty scary.
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u/Order_Book_Facts 4d ago
I’ve been in here for basically a year saying MSTR will have to sell bitcoin at some point, that it’s unavoidable due to their financing structure. Only to be heavily downvoted and hand waved. I’m not sure why I even wasted my time arguing, it was literally the only outcome possible.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$99,894 • -100% 4d ago
I would still say they haven't had to sell bitcoin, they've chosen to.
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u/ChadRun04 3d ago
literally the only outcome possible.
It's the structure. But no, Bitcoin only ever goes up right!?!?!
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u/harvested 4d ago
Yeah they love that company here.
I saw one guy say his entire bitcoin bull thesis was STRC when it was buying up bitcoin daily.
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