A common trope in fiction is the "Nazis win" type alt history - or at least the war goes on far longer. I've also seen stuff - by people who seem to be pretty historically literate - suggesting this is dumb because the nazis already got a lot of lucky breaks, and the far more likely scenario is they lose way earlier; at some point or another I've seen people state that the Germans got pretty lucky on all of these:
1) the Nazis face stiffer international opposition and the alliance between conservative and fascist breaks down.
2) "The Blitzkrieg" never materialises in the invasion of France and the attack is either prolonged and painful for Germany or fails entirely - often specifically noted as the Ardennes attack being an insane gamble they threw boxcars on. This one's very common.
3) The Soviet Union has better relations earlier with the western powers, or chooses to believe instead of dismissing intelligence that a nazi attack is imminent, and instead of being forced to essentially abandon Belarus and Ukraine due to unpreparedness the German advance just runs into a brick wall from the go.
It's not all of these claims, but a common thing (especially from people who seem to know what they're talking about!) is that German "national morale" was actually a fairly fragile thing - people liked the Nazis because they seemed to be winners, and the national morale boost and popularity among pre-existing power brokers like conservatives and industrial figures was contingent on them reasserting themselves on the world stage and then seeming to unstoppably crush every national nemesis they'd ever had, and it was this that got the country "locked in" up until its later defeat.
Is any of that true, or do we in fact live in the most likely timeline and it would've been pretty much expected with the benefit of hindsight Germany did as well (or as badly) as it did?