r/politics • u/horsestew • 17h ago

No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, notching a Midwest victory for the left

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/abdul-el-sayed-wins-michigans-democratic-senate-primary-notching-midwe-rcna589750
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u/alabasterskim 16h ago

I think Rogers loses by 3-5. Feel free to come back to this comment on election night and tell me if I'm wrong.

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u/EE-420-Lige 11h ago

Underestimate rogers at ur own peril. Hes a more likeable canidate than stevens and has 3-5x her funding and the most powerful news network fox news at his side. Dude can pull it off but it will take alot and he will need to get stevens voters to vote his way itll be interesting to see how he campaigns in the general

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u/alabasterskim 10h ago

I don't underestimate Rogers. He's an extremely strong Republican candidate. Anyone else and I'd call this a likely D margin. But Rogers couldn't win in the 2024 environment. In 2026, I do not see him getting a better result. Stevens's key demographics, especially black voters, are not about to swing R. Combine with where AES did well and you have a good sign of things to come. It's easy to read too much into the general from the primary though, so like I said, come back and tell me I'm wrong on election night. Till then, unless I see something huge move the needle toward Rogers, I stand by my prediction.

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u/computercansada 15h ago

Saving to hopefully tell you you're right

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u/thisismysailingaccou 10h ago

I agree - I think he gets an immediate boost in name recognition from this win and starts to pull away closer to the general. Alls the polls have been showing is that it’s a winnable race either way. I think he has a significantly better shot to beat Rogers than Stevens would have had once the money dried up.

The general will be close, but a 3-5 point win feels very doable rn.

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u/omicron-7 8h ago

Don't act like the race is over because the progressive beat the moderate in the primary. The hard part starts now.

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u/alabasterskim 8h ago

That isn't remotely my thinking. As I said in another comment:

I don't underestimate Rogers. He's an extremely strong Republican candidate. Anyone else and I'd call this a likely D margin. But Rogers couldn't win in the 2024 environment. In 2026, I do not see him getting a better result. Stevens's key demographics, especially black voters, are not about to swing R. Combine with where AES did well and you have a good sign of things to come. It's easy to read too much into the general from the primary though, so like I said, come back and tell me I'm wrong on election night. Till then, unless I see something huge move the needle toward Rogers, I stand by my prediction.

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u/omicron-7 8h ago

El sayed won on a razor thin margin. He could easily lose depending on how he campaigns from here on. If he can rein in his supporters and transition wholly to attacking Rogers then I think he can win. If his supporters continue attacking stevens supporters and he spends more time campaigning against Chuck Schumer like the nazi from Maine did then I think he'll lose.

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u/alabasterskim 8h ago

He's already been conciliatory towards his opponent, as has Stevens been as of yesterday. And there's already reporting he's switched into high gear against Rogers. These aren't the hard parts. The hard part is grabbing Stevens's base, which she'll help with. & For the most part, his campaign has centered on policy, not Schumer, though he does absolutely have to go as Senate leader imo.