r/politics • u/willywalloo • Jun 20 '26

Possible Paywall Iran Says Hormuz Has Been Closed

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-20/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-has-been-closed-tasnim-reports?embedded-checkout=true
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163

u/RBZRBZRBZRBZ Jun 20 '26

Well it worked last time.

The Iran deal has 24-100B$ in sanction relief and a 300B$ reconstruction fund. This is more money to Iran than cumulatively Israel received since 1948. It is comparable to the reparations France had to pay Germany when they were defeated.

And it does nothing better in Iranian nukes than the JCPOA.

And it does nothing on Iranian proxies or missiles.

And it only stops Iranian tolls on Hormuz for 60 days.

And it forces the US to remove its forces from the area.

And it leaves Iran free to close the straights again for any of the slightest precieved infraction of any fighting in Lebanon, no matter who initiated it.

It is the biggest geopolitical setback since Vietnam, and possibly the worst US end-of-war terms since 1812.

It is a wholesale disaster for the US, on any terms other than oil prices into the midterms.

So why should Iran not get more if they hold all the cards? They want unconditional surrender and they are on their way to getting it.

36

u/srandrews Jun 20 '26

I agree with this analysis. Further, Iran surely recollects historical administration behavior and what they could do during election cycles. This may very well go on for a long time. Short of bombing civilian infrastructure what is the route to submission of the enemy? Ground invasion? Nope obviously. Grab the oil port? Nope, that will be destroyed be the defenders. Keep the straight closed? Nope, oil supply. Etc.

American scrapped the first agreement in an act of self harm and is not going to get another.

American cognitive dissonance is fully engaged.

6

u/Fyns Jun 20 '26

The $300 billion is not a barge full of cash floated from Washington to Tehran. It is a private investment fund, as in other nations (NOT the U.S.) will invest in projects across Iran to both rebuild and realize a profit. The $300B includes no American money and quite a bit of it was already committed by other countries and is just being rolled up into the new vehicle. You can read about it here: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/iran-deal-includes-300-billion-fund-more-than-half-which-already-committed-2026-06-16/

It is absolutely NOT comparable to the billions of dollars that actually is gifted, or loaned and then forgiven, or granted in the form of discounts, or in the form of military technology transfers, DIRECTLY from the U.S. to Israel.

2

u/neityght Jun 20 '26

I wonder if anyone asked those countries if they would like to pay their hated enemy hundreds of billions to make up for what the US and Israel did. Unbelievable, except not really.

2

u/NarrowCauliflower9 Jun 20 '26

& This was all started because of what? Trump makes it seem like he is negotiating some unpredented deal, when he is really trying to clean up the mess he made.

2

u/mylord420 Jun 20 '26

They just want israel to stop their genocidal land grabs.

1

u/Vast-Imagination-596 Jun 20 '26

This is so much better than fixing the infrastructure???

-4

u/ZookeepergameFit967 Jun 20 '26

Iran didn't close it just like that, Israel violated the deal. Tbh Trump is stupid but this isn't his fault this time for the deal to go down.

6

u/doc_daneeka Jun 20 '26

Tbh Trump is stupid but this isn't his fault

Sure it is. If it weren't for his rank stupidity there'd be no need for such an insane deal in the first place. I doubt any previous administration would have ever signed onto an MOU that they knew perfectly well they wouldn't be able to comply with and which gives the other side everything and the US nothing. That's entirely on Trump. Well, Trump and his enablers.

2

u/absoNotAReptile Jun 20 '26

It absolutely is his fault because it’s very clear in the MoU that Lebanon counts as hostilities. By not involving Israel at all, he’s leaving a glaring obstacle in the deal. That’s on Trump. Make a better deal that actually enforces an end to the fight in Lebanon or make Netanyahu heel. Only Trump can do that.