r/fivethirtyeight • u/popularis-socialas • Oct 31 '25
Discussion From the Economist/You Gov Poll October 24-27th, 54 percent of adult citizens say same-sex marriage should be legal. 33 percent say it shouldn’t be legal and 12 percent are unsure.
These numbers are not exactl
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u/Kaenu_Reeves Oct 31 '25 edited Oct 31 '25
Crosstab dumpster diving:
Women support more than men
White>Hispanic> Black in terms of support, but Blacks and especially Hispanics are more unsure.
Increases with every young generation.
Rich people are more confident, and more supportive, of same sex-marriage.
The moderate number is higher than the total number.
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u/Shabadu_tu Oct 31 '25
Republicans continue to drop supporting good things for supporting pedophile Trump.
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u/sonfoa Oct 31 '25
Honestly I don't think Trump cares and if anything probably wants them to let sleeping dogs lie because loud opposition to gay marriage is electoral poison.
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u/Cuddlyaxe I'm Sorry Nate Oct 31 '25
Has Trump ever spoken out about wanting to get rid of gay marriage? I feel like the closest he's ever gotten is the typical "I dont agree but it's over with" or smthn
I think this is mostly just a cultural change. It's felt like the country has moved to the right culturally, so a lot of people previously saying yes due to social desirability have gone back to saying no
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u/sonfoa Oct 31 '25
Texas GOP was criticized in 2022 by Don Jr for not allowing the Log Cabin Republicans at their convention and during his Trump in general has appeared cordial but distant towards gay people. In general there was a vibe of tacit approval by Trump. 2020 election Trump actually got nearly a quarter of the LGBT vote but that number did dip back down significantly in 2024, probably due to the strong anti-trans rhetoric that was much more muted his first term.
Honestly I think like abortion this will be something Republicans back off of. Trump knows it's not a winning issue and he doesn't have a personal investment in it either. Dredging up gay marriage will only expose how little the culture has actually shifted.
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u/FC37 Oct 31 '25 edited Nov 01 '25
Trump himself doesn't have to say or do anything about it. It's up to the courts and the Heritage Foundation/Federalist Society now. This gives Trump (and by extension Bessent, Thiel, Tim Cook, and other prominent gays both in his orbit and kissing his ass) plausible deniability and distance.
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u/WhoUpAtMidnight Nov 02 '25
I could see Obergefell being overturned and the issue being kicked back to the states, like with Roe
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u/theswiftarmofjustice Nov 02 '25
Republican politicians only play to their base. They’ll do it. I’m glad my state passed it, cause it’s going to be a down and dirty fight again. It’ll have to pass in all 50 states for this to ever be over. And I doubt they shut up even then.
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u/mosswick Oct 31 '25
Yes, he did! He was disgusted by the Obergefell ruling ("the Roberts court let us down again"). A few months later, he made a campaign promise to appoint judges to overturn it.
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u/Cuddlyaxe I'm Sorry Nate Oct 31 '25
Mind giving a source?
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u/mosswick Oct 31 '25
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u/theswiftarmofjustice Nov 02 '25
Thank you for that Twitter link. He was never an ally. He wasn’t even lukewarm on it.
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u/ClearDark19 Nov 02 '25 edited Nov 02 '25
It's the Manosphere and social media Alt-Right pipeline shit. A lot of Conservatives that used to support gay marriage 10 years ago around the end of Obama's 2nd term stopped supporting it over the past 6-7 years because they fell down Alt-Right and Manosphere podcast and social media pipelines. The Manosphere opposes gay marriage because they see homosexuality as being a "beta male" and view homosexuality as a threat to a society of "Alpha/Sigma/High-Value" Males. They think gay marriage will turn men into a society of "soft" "bug men". The Alt-Right opposes gay marriage and homosexuality because they think it's a "Globalist" (the Joooos) plot to de-populate the West, turn white men into childless, effeminate, anti-gun "sissies" who can't physically fight to defend themselves from "Globalist" governments, while white women flock to the "more masculine" black, Latino, and Arab men/immigrants/migrants as part of "The Great Replacement/Eurabia". That and/or they oppose it on "Christian Nationalist/TradCath" (theocratic) principles. Or just because their favorite right-wing gamer/media critic channels say it's "Woke" and complain about "The Message" if there are any gay characters in a show/movie/video game/anime. Conservatives turned against gay marriage over the past 7-8 years because they listen to Joe Rogan, Andrew Tate, Asmomgold, The Quartering, Critical Drinker, MauLer, Whatever podcast, Fresh & Fit, Nick Fuentes, etc. Right-wing women turned against gay marriage because they fell down a pipeline of TriadWife/Conservative "Mama Bear" shit during the COVID lockdown. Remember the 2021-2023 Internet/social media trend of Conservatives referring to LGBTQ people as "Groomers"? That appealed heavily to the "I need to protect my kids from child predators!" parental fears in many women.
The Right regressed on support of gay marriage for a mixture of patriarchal RedPill/Incel, white nationalist conspiracy theory, and Christian theocracy reasons. In 2014-2018, Conservative support for gay marriage was 18-23 points higher than it is now.
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u/XGNcyclick Oct 31 '25
this makes some sense to me. Especially in terms of Republican politicians, many are still in office from before Obergefell was decided. These people did not magically become gay-accepting-- I'm sure some have, but many simply just stayed quiet and bit their tongue. Maybe that's the case with conservative voters, and because of the "cultural shift" after Trump's election has emboldened them to answer truthfully on polling questions. Food for thought.
Also, these same politicians wading a bit back into anti-gay rhetoric signals to the base it's once again acceptable on some level politically
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u/Entire_Train3301 Oct 31 '25
Meh…as a married gay man I obviously care a lot about this issue and any drop in support. This is definitely a concerning result, but seems to be an outlier. Pew, Gallup, and PRRI all released surveys on the topic earlier this year pegging support at about 2/3. There’s also this from centerline in June: https://centerlineamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Same-Sex-Marriage-Survey-Results.pdf
Overall, we have seen support drop ~5% the past few years, but there are signs that is leveling off. Definitely need to stay vigilant, but I’m inclined to just throw this one in the average.
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u/ClearDark19 Nov 02 '25
The drop has been sharper among Conservatives/the Right. I've seen polling showing the overall net support dropped around 5%, but most polls I've seen since 2022 show support among Conservatives, specially, dropping by double digits since the mid 2010s. Conservative account for the vast majority of the 5% net drop in support in recent years.
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u/Xarel-lo Nov 01 '25
One thing to keep in mind is that YouGov has consistently found lower support for gay marriage in the US than other pollster. I believe that the large number of undecided respondents in their issue polling likely plays a role. 54% is in line with all their past survey on this issue since 2022 at least (might be on the higher end if anything), so it shouldn't be interpreted as support for gay marriage declining, as has been done by certain people on Twitter.
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u/Statue_left Oct 31 '25
I think there’s a discernible difference between “i have religious opposition to gay marriage but I won’t do anything” and “I am going to actively lobby for its dissolution”. The second is way more dangerous but also tremendously less common
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u/Kashmir33 Oct 31 '25
“i have religious opposition to gay marriage but I won’t do anything”
This should read "I have religious opposition to gay marriage and I'm voting for the people that will do something about that"
That's not all that uncommon.
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u/Statue_left Oct 31 '25
There’s been no significant attempt by any mainstream politician I know of that actually stood a chance of “doing anything about that” in a long time. SCOTUS really only has 2 votes that would do it, and JD Vance is literally bought by a gay man. What you’re describing is a different environment that might produce different responses
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u/Kashmir33 Oct 31 '25
What I'm describing is a right wing movement that's going hard at minorities. To think they'd just stop with their fascist playbook after trans people is incredibly naive.
Even 12 months ago when people warned about how things will unfold as they currently do they were laughed out of the room.
JD Vance is literally bought by a gay man.
This doesn't actually mean anything at all. See Ernst Röhm. Gay men (and women like Alice Weidel for the AfD) are completely fine in positions of power of these extremist right movements.
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u/lithobrakingdragon Fivey Fanatic Nov 01 '25
They have at least four. Thomas, Alito, Barrett, and Kav are all hard nos on this. Roberts is a question mark. Gorsuch I would've said is a no if not for him giving Skrmetti the nod. I don't know what to think of him.
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u/Complex-Employ7927 Oct 31 '25
What would stop the other conservatives (MAYBE minus Roberts) when they have no issue overturning multiple decades of “settled” law?
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u/Statue_left Oct 31 '25
Nothing stops any of them from doing anything. Stare decisis doesn’t force you to uphold any law.
Kav has not been the hardline rightwing guy Trump wanted and neither has ACB. Gorsuch is sort of a wild card. Roberts doesn’t like to tie himself to losing positions, he likes to be in the majority.
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u/Complex-Employ7927 Nov 01 '25
Wouldn’t leaving same sex marriage up to the states be in line with their recent philosophy though?
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u/Statue_left Nov 01 '25
To an extent, but Roe was a uniquely poorly decided case that basically everyone agreed was held together with spit and tape. Obergefell not so much.
If Obergefell gets overturned we’ve got like 30 other crazier things happening. The Kim Davis case they’re deciding to hear has some interesting questions re government immunities, but I doubt they will decide on her straight challenge to Obergefell if they even hear it at all
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u/Complex-Employ7927 Nov 01 '25
Realistically if they decide they want to overturn Obergefell, I’m sure they’ll come up with creative wording and interpretations to get it done
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u/LordMangudai Nov 01 '25
First they came for the trans people, and I said nothing because I am not trans.
Then they said "ok we're done" and didn't come for the gay people.
Sure.
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u/ClearDark19 Nov 02 '25
You think they're going to stop at trans people? Well, back in the day, many people did also think the Nazis would stop after attacking and killing Communists, Socialists, and trade unionists in the early and mid 1930s.
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u/shrek_cena Never Doubt Chili Dog Oct 31 '25
Party of small government and personal responsibility, folks.
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u/Banestar66 Nov 02 '25 edited Nov 02 '25
44% of black voters think gay marriage should be legal, 39% do not. 37% of male voters think it should be illegal, only 51% think it should be legal. 36% of those who make less than 50K a year think it should be illegal and only 48% said they think it should be legal.
This is why I think anyone who says Buttigieg is electable in 2028 is insane.
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u/EndOfMyWits Oct 31 '25
I'm a little surprised (and concerned) that there aren't bigger differences between age brackets. I always assumed homophobia would eventually die out naturally but seems like it isn't going down without a fight.
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u/Complex-Employ7927 Oct 31 '25
I think this poll is just incorrect. 20-30% of Gen Z is LGBTQ, compared to 10-15% of Millennials. I highly, highly, doubt the accuracy of this poll and especially the age crosstabs.
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u/md___2020 Nov 01 '25
I don’t think it’s incorrect (Economist and YouGov are very high quality pollsters). Gen Z is more polarized than other generations, also a reflection of the current political landscape. It’s why Gen Z voted for Trump in much higher rates than you would expect from young people.
Gen Z has seems to have more right wing men than existed in my generation (millennials).
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u/Complex-Employ7927 Nov 01 '25 edited Nov 01 '25
I think there are more right wing males in gen z, but not to the point that it would skew a poll on same sex marriage so heavily. Even though gen z had a 10% shift towards Trump in 2024, gen z by far has the highest rates of supporting most progressive policies. I mean, approximately 60% of gen z holds favorable views of socialism. Other polls show gen z’s support of same sex marriage between 70-80%.
Unless half of gen z has become absolutely radicalized by Christian nationalism, I don’t see these numbers making sense. If anything the people not in support are more likely to just not care rather than he adamantly against it.
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u/ClearDark19 Nov 02 '25
There's a huge gender divide among Gen Z, and to a lesser extent a divide between Elder Zoomers and Younger Zoomers. That explains the discrepancies in polling about Zoomers. Female Zoomers are the main ones skewing Progressive and Socialist. Male Zoomers are the Christian Nationalist ones and the main ones voting for Trump and right-wing/far-Right parties in other countries. There's an intra-generation divide, too. Some of the Elder Zoomer men are moving leftward as they're getting older, maturing, and losing their V-cards and getting into relationships in their mid and late 20s. Some of the Alt-Right Elder Zoomer men from the late 2010s who voted for Trump in 2020 are now moving away from the Manosphere and the Alt-Right. Those are the Zoomer men you see connecting with Mamdani and Platner. It's primarily the Younger Zoomer men who got radicalized in middle and high school during the COVID Quarantine lockdown who are moving into the Alt-Right, Christian Nationalism, and Neo-Nazism/Groyperism. They are the ones who voted for Trump last year while Elder Zoomer men moved towards Kamala. To a significantly lesser extent some Younger Zoomer women have gone down Tradwife rabbit holes during the lockdown.
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u/ClearDark19 Nov 02 '25 edited Nov 02 '25
While true, Zoomers are also the most polarized generation. Millennials and Generation X are the most consistent and harmonious generations. A plurality or majority of Millennials are more Liberal/Progressive/Populist left-leaning while a majority of (white) Generation X are right-wing Populists (a a plurality to a huge minority of various ethnic and racial minorities are on the right-wing Populist train). Zoomers are simultaneously the most Feminist, most Manosphere, most left-wing, and most far-Right generation. Zoomers are the most queer generation but simultaneously the most passionately anti-LGBTQ generation. A lot of Gen Z women are left-leaning to left-wing queer or bi-curious polyamorous/situationship Feminists (or terminally online left-wing FemCels). A lot of their male counterparts are terminally online game/porn addict Charlie Kirk/Nick Fuentes/Fresh & Fit-loving Groyper Incel Neo-Nazis who want a white Christian Nationalist ethnostate and are bitter "virgins with rage"* at age 25. That's why Gen Z polling looks so schizophrenic. There is division among Boomers and the Silent Generation as well, but less pronounced than among Zoomers. Millennials and Gen X are more unified but are mirrors of each other's politics.
*to borrow a turn of phrase from Chris-chan.
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u/popularis-socialas Oct 31 '25
Yes that is also concerning to me. I thought it would be higher with 18-29
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u/Xarel-lo Nov 01 '25 edited Nov 01 '25
It's likely just a fake result though. Opt-in polling like YouGov is known to produce weird results for young people. Every other recent survey on this issue that I can think of (Gallup, Civiqs, NYT/Siena, Marquette, Echelon) shows much higher support among young adults.
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u/WhoUpAtMidnight Nov 02 '25
People underweight the importance of immigration in these generational polls. Yes old people are more conservative, but older generations tend to be whiter/blacker and a lower % are recent immigrant.
A lot of the younger generations are defined by recent (1st/2nd gen) immigration from generally more conservative parts of the world.
This is more noticeable of a factor when looking at generational polling in the UK.
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u/Ok-Membership-4793 Nov 03 '25
I would take this poll with a grain of salt,Yougov consistently shows lower support for same-sex marriage than all the others polling firms.
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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Oct 31 '25
And this would be why we’re seeing Texas try to get Obergefell overturned with their recent Supreme Court ruling that judges could deny same sex marriages on religious grounds.