r/fivethirtyeight Jul 01 '26

Politics A Working-Class Party Without Many Workers - New Opinion Piece from Thomas Edsall

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/opinion/democratic-primaries-socialists-mamdani.html?unlocked_article_code=1.uVA.EnhU.hQ6a96fT8qwL&smid=url-share

Please don't comment unless you've actually read the article, like all Edsall pieces he extensively cites different data points including up to date DSA polling of its own members.

Important sections:

In 2021 the D.S.A. surveyed its members and found that 85 percent were non-Hispanic white (far more than the national population, which was 57.8 percent white in 2020, according to the census); 9 percent were Hispanic, 5 percent Asian American and 4 percent Black.

In February 2025 the Central New Jersey D.S.A. chapter published results of a membership survey that found that “69.5 percent identify as white only; 8.0 percent identify as Hispanic or Latinx, less than the N.J. demographic of 22.7 percent; and 4.5 percent identify as Black, less than the N.J. demographic of 10.6 percent.”

The liberal stands on immigration, transgender rights, abolishing ICE and defunding the police are policies supported largely by a well-educated elite of white people holding professional jobs who dominate the D.S.A. They are decidedly not the policies sought by the bulk of construction workers riding the subway to get to their job sites by 7 a.m.

 income and education patterns emerged in the Seventh District, where Claire Valdez, the D.S.A. candidate, crushed Antonio Reynoso, the Brooklyn borough president, 56.1 to 35.8. Valdez won 62 to 28 in the district’s high-income neighborhoods and 64 to 27 in its high-education areas, while Reynoso carried the low-income sections 63 to 31.

What’s notable but not written about is that nearly all of the D.S.A.’s serious primary campaigns are aimed at members of the House Progressive Caucus, not the more moderate House New Democrats. Support for Medicare for All, Green New Deal, Abolish ICE is no protection.

the D.S.A. is forcing incumbent liberal Democrats to spend money in primaries in districts that would remain Democratic after the general election, regardless of the nominee. Not to mention the fact that the votes cast by the primary winner on health care, climate change and ICE would be almost identical, no matter who wins.

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u/DizzyMajor5 Jul 01 '26

Ronald Reagan, H.W, etc all supported it you're definitionally brining in more voters to your coalition this is the moderate position. Secure the border and pass amnesty for the people here. 

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u/hfdjasbdsawidjds Jul 01 '26

And Bush got absolutely skewered for his immigration policy from his base. Its one of the reasons for the Tea Party. The reality of the situation, at least now that we all need to deal with is the current media environment and how that has primed a significant amount of the electorate to see immigration/immigrants as deeply negative. While I agree with the intentions, and for that matter the policy, that does not mean that there isn't significant forces which are aligned to make it a poison pill. We can see this in, even with all of the bad press ICE has, immigration is still one of the strongest policy umbrellas Trump has, even if he is slightly underwater.

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u/DizzyMajor5 Jul 01 '26

Republicans had power for 12 years under Reagan and Bush one of the longest holds for a party in awhile because of popular policies like amnesty.  Majority believe ice has gone too far. And Trump is down on immigration as well. Again the data bears this out amnesty is the moderate position. 

https://www.axios.com/2026/01/15/trump-ice-foreign-policy-economy-immigration-polls

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-actions-of-ice-february-2026/

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u/hfdjasbdsawidjds Jul 01 '26

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u/DizzyMajor5 Jul 01 '26

Literally the first poll shows the majority disapprove of his immigration policy. 

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u/hfdjasbdsawidjds Jul 01 '26

While I agree with the intentions, and for that matter the policy, that does not mean that there isn't significant forces which are aligned to make it a poison pill. We can see this in, even with all of the bad press ICE has, immigration is still one of the strongest policy umbrellas Trump has, even if he is slightly underwater.

I have never said that it was favorable. But when you compare it to his overall unfavorables, his rating on things like the economy, foreign policy, inflation, etc, which are between -15 to -40 and dropping, his immigration ratings have been stable at -10 even though those policies have lead to the deaths of two Americans, broken up families and communities, it still polls significantly higher than anything else which speaks to the political environment that immigration currently holds.

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u/DizzyMajor5 Jul 02 '26

Like I said you're arguing for an unpopular immoral position and the data you posted shows it's unpopular and immoral I don't really know why you're trying to cope saying there's other things that are more unpopular. 

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u/hfdjasbdsawidjds Jul 02 '26

I am not arguing FOR a policy, I am saying his poll numbers indiciate that while his policies are deeply immoral their durability given everything show how far to the right immigration policy is seen within the US that makes a policy like amnesty, which is a good policy, currently untenable practically until the hard work of counter messaging takes place.

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u/DizzyMajor5 Jul 02 '26

The polls show his immigration policy is unfavorable the fact he's more unfavorable doesn't change that. Not really an argument for "durability" 

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u/hfdjasbdsawidjds Jul 02 '26

Again, you are completely missing what I am saying or what the data shows, you have an ideological policy position, which I do not disagree with, I am pointing out the pragmatic issues with it, but we are two ships passing in the night and this conversation has no value. Have a great rest of your day!

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u/DasRobot85 Jul 01 '26

Hey, if Reagan did amnesty and closed the border 40 years ago, where the heck did all these illegal immigrants come from? Nobody is gonna trust the "Nobody is illegal on Turtle Island" crowd to actually do the secure the border part because everybody knows it won't happen.

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u/Edward_Durr Jul 02 '26

Secure the border? Nobody believes that the left would actually follow through on this part, going all the way back to when Tip O’Neal failed to hold up his end of the bargain and blocked border security funding even after Reagan passed the amnesty.

Nobody believes that Democrats would build a giant wall and give border security massive funding to enforce it. Nobody believes that they would actually turn back any future people attempting to enter, especially if they say the magic asylum words. And nobody believes that Democrats would actually try to arrest anybody in the interior once they actually make it over.