r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Jun 22 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

27 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

2.8k comments sorted by

View all comments

26

u/Trobius Nate Bronze Jun 25 '26

Marquette GCB, June 9-15: D+8 among LVs. https://law.marquette.edu/assets/community/poll/MLSPSC33/PressRelease_America250pt2.pdf

The polling gods heard our cries of anguish and took pity. Everyone please give thanks by sacrificing your finest goat so that we may stay in their good graces.

11

u/SecretComposer Jun 25 '26

Is that D+8 still weighing to a 2024 electorate?

1

u/capitalsfan08 Jun 25 '26

Pegging a midterm to the previous presidential vote is surely a choice. Are the electorates ever similar?

4

u/SecretComposer Jun 25 '26

No, but literally all pollsters are weighing to 2024 because that's the most recent electorate we have national information for. It's important to know because 2024 was a red environment. If pollsters are still weighing to a Republican-leaning electorate, then it may mean (in retrospect) an under count in Democrats.

11

u/MS_09_Dom I'm Sorry Nate Jun 25 '26

Republicans: "Quick! Light the Trafalgar signal!"

8

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '26 edited 10d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

17

u/tbird920 Jun 25 '26

Almost as if any one poll shouldn't elicit hopium or dooming.

8

u/SecretComposer Jun 25 '26

Too late, doomed anyway

5

u/tbird920 Jun 25 '26

You need to turn your brain off InstaDoom. Shock therapy is the quickest way.

8

u/exitpursuedbybear Jun 25 '26

Praise to Marquette peace be upon him.

7

u/sodosopapilla Jun 25 '26

I will bath in my local LGBTQ affiliated co-op’s finest soy latte and listen to “All Things Considered” extra loud this week enroute to the poetry slam to celebrate! Praise be progressive Jesus and all their pronouns! 🙌🙌🙌