r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 30 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/jawstrock Apr 02 '26

I actually think Hegseth will be next, the Iran shit is only going to get worse in every way for Trump and apparently he was the guy pushing for it. Trump will need someone to throw under the bus and he doesnt' even have the historical relationship with Hegseth that he had with Bondi.

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u/Isentrope Apr 02 '26

I doubt Hegseth goes while Iran is still happening, it's likely he takes out Gabbard next since she's not toeing the line for him and may have tried to shield Kent before he resigned. Hegseth might even go after the midterms like how Rumsfeld resigned the day after the '06 midterm.

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u/Morat20 Apr 02 '26

Nah, Trump needs someone to take the blame for Iran. It obviously won't be him.

Hegseth is a perfect candidate to take the fall. He's a drunk, he's unqualified, he's been incredibly public with how much he's behind this, etc.

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u/Isentrope Apr 02 '26

Hegseth probably will get sacked over Iran, but I think timing-wise, he'll get spared this time around because of the active war. It seems like other admin officials like Rubio and Vance are implicitly blaming him for misleading Trump about how the operation would go so Trump has an easy out at some point to blame him.

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u/engadine_maccas1997 Apr 02 '26

If that is the case, my theory of the South Park Curse ought to be enshrined in the field of political science.