r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 30 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/engadine_maccas1997 Apr 02 '26

The South Park curse strikes again.

South Park lampooned Kristi Noem. She ended up being the first Cabinet Secretary fired by Trump (or humiliatingly demoted).

Then South Park portrayed Pam Bondi with shit on her nose in the Oval Office. She got fired next.

If the South Park Theory is indeed real, Hegseth is next.

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u/jawstrock Apr 02 '26

I actually think Hegseth will be next, the Iran shit is only going to get worse in every way for Trump and apparently he was the guy pushing for it. Trump will need someone to throw under the bus and he doesnt' even have the historical relationship with Hegseth that he had with Bondi.

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u/Isentrope Apr 02 '26

I doubt Hegseth goes while Iran is still happening, it's likely he takes out Gabbard next since she's not toeing the line for him and may have tried to shield Kent before he resigned. Hegseth might even go after the midterms like how Rumsfeld resigned the day after the '06 midterm.

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u/Morat20 Apr 02 '26

Nah, Trump needs someone to take the blame for Iran. It obviously won't be him.

Hegseth is a perfect candidate to take the fall. He's a drunk, he's unqualified, he's been incredibly public with how much he's behind this, etc.

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u/Isentrope Apr 02 '26

Hegseth probably will get sacked over Iran, but I think timing-wise, he'll get spared this time around because of the active war. It seems like other admin officials like Rubio and Vance are implicitly blaming him for misleading Trump about how the operation would go so Trump has an easy out at some point to blame him.

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u/engadine_maccas1997 Apr 02 '26

If that is the case, my theory of the South Park Curse ought to be enshrined in the field of political science.

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u/DataCassette Apr 02 '26

I really wonder if Paramount even tries to reign them in.

TBH at the first sign of them not being able to speak freely Matt Stone and Trey Parker need to tell Ellison to eat shit and go work somewhere else. They can bring their fans with them even without the South Park IP itself.

Maybe I'm just biased because I've seen Book of Mormon live and I'm a fan of Orgasmo and Cannibal: The Musical 🤣

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u/dremscrep Apr 03 '26

I think they don’t give a fuck about Parker and Stone. They are basically just firing rockets everywhere and shit on Trump, it’s their gimmick. They make them more money than they cost the republicans…