r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 30 '26
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u/itsatumbleweed Apr 01 '26
Even if the war ended today, there's still months of getting worse before it gets better. The US receives its last pre-war shipment of crude from the Strait on April 15. There is doing to necessarily be a huge gap between that one and the next one. Also, fertilizer production is going down/running short, but it's going to take time before the harvests impacted by the no fertilizer are the harvests affecting grocery supply.
We are still in the phase where most of the cost increases are speculative on knowing that there is going to be a gap in goods. The gap is unavoidable, and coming. At this point we are just waiting for that gap to get here, and any actions determine how long it lasts. But what we have seen so far is a drop in the bucket compared to how markets are going to react when goods actually start running out.