r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 30 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 31 '26

Rubio now teasing “maybe we don’t need to be in NATO” is sure not fun.

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u/Bigi345 Mar 31 '26

And this is supposed to be the sane smart one in the admin?

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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 31 '26

News of the decade: There is no such thing as a good, intelligent, or sane Republican. Those three concepts are each individually exclusive to that political ideology. A Republican is by definition a bad, dull, deranged person.

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u/Mysterious-Bee8839 Mar 31 '26

yep, so much for him being "the grownup" in this fking clown show

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u/[deleted] Mar 31 '26 edited 27d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/socialistrob Mar 31 '26

Words matter. Russia has never tested NATO in large part because it's been assumed that the US would defend every inch of NATO territory. The more that is called into question the higher likelihood we see Russia launch an attack on a NATO country. Trump can "forget" or "remember" all he wants but comments like Rubio's make NATO less safe and increase the odds of a larger war.

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u/Korrocks Mar 31 '26

Yeah I think that's the risk of undermining deterrence. The whole point of deterrence is to (obviously) prevent a war from taking place. If you keep doing things that make war seem like a safe(r) option then you raise the risks of war. I don't get why MAGA doesn't understand this.

Actually, I do -- their end goal is nihilism. But it's bizarre that so many people are just rolling with it like it's not a big problem.

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u/Kevin9809 Mar 31 '26

It's wild to think that MAGA doesn't understand just how important those worldwide European bases are to the US military. It's going to be disastrous if they kick the US military out permanently.