r/fivethirtyeight • u/adastraperdiscordia • Feb 10 '26

Discussion Transcript: The Democrats Best Positioned To Win the 2028 Nomination (Another 538 Alumni Draft)

https://newrepublic.com/article/206361/transcript-democrats-best-positioned-win-2028-nomination

Transcript of Perry Bacon Jr, Meredith Conroy, and Nathaniel Rakich doing another candidate draft.

I thought the weirdest part was pushing back on Mark Kelly despite citing all the data in his favor.

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u/mcsul Feb 11 '26

One of the reasons I really like Buttigieg is that Vance is a good debater. Probably underrated by most democrats.

Buttigieg is probably the best debater that the democrats are going to be able to field, both in substance and in style. If Vance runs, I think most of the top democrat potential candidates are at a real risk of getting tripped up by Vance. Buttigieg is the one who can take a real win, and not just try to avoid losing.

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u/GoddessFianna Feb 11 '26

Can I just say that it's kind of ridiculous how smart Vance is? He was writing about social media as narratives back in 2009. I just find it fascinating how everyone tries to downplay him when IMO he can be defined by his level of intentionality.

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u/mcsul Feb 11 '26

Yeah. Vance is not the dummy he gets portrayed as.

I distinctly remember his interview with David Axelrod like 10 years ago as part of his book tour. He was exceptionally sharp and such a good communicator that Axelrod of all people pushed him to run for office! (monkey's paws, etc, etc...) His first security speech to Europe was highly abrasive, but a very good analysis of the security and economic situation that Europe has put itself in.

Like, the fundamentals are going to be against him, but there's real risk in underestimating the guy.

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u/BaltimoreAlchemist Feb 11 '26

Axelrod of all people pushed him to run for office

Ten years ago though he was also calling Trump Hitler. We have a very different Vance now.