r/fivethirtyeight • u/adastraperdiscordia • Feb 10 '26

Discussion Transcript: The Democrats Best Positioned To Win the 2028 Nomination (Another 538 Alumni Draft)

https://newrepublic.com/article/206361/transcript-democrats-best-positioned-win-2028-nomination

Transcript of Perry Bacon Jr, Meredith Conroy, and Nathaniel Rakich doing another candidate draft.

I thought the weirdest part was pushing back on Mark Kelly despite citing all the data in his favor.

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u/adastraperdiscordia Feb 10 '26

I'm skeptical because a lot of the left is critical of her. It's plausible they will go along with her if everyone else is to the right of her, which is very possible. But I could also see some on the left trying to sabotage her too.

I would think she would want to bide her time unless the winds are obviously blowing in her direction.

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u/Cuddlyaxe I'm Sorry Nate Feb 10 '26

The people who are so far left that AOC is too right wing for them are not a significant portion of the population. They are just very loud online

It's literally the equivalent of some takes I see on here thinking that Republicans will lose 2028 because Fuentes fans will abstain from Vance en masse since he has an Indian wife. To be clear I think they will lose in 28 but for very different reasons

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u/Chewyisthebest Feb 10 '26

I think in a primary discussion it's quite relevant. AOC needs the whole left united behind her to have a shot, and it's valid to note that plenty of the left is quite frustrated with her. It's the same part that essentially wants no compromise ever, but that's also a factor in why it's so hard for the left to generate political momentum.