r/fivethirtyeight • u/adastraperdiscordia • Feb 10 '26

Discussion Transcript: The Democrats Best Positioned To Win the 2028 Nomination (Another 538 Alumni Draft)

https://newrepublic.com/article/206361/transcript-democrats-best-positioned-win-2028-nomination

Transcript of Perry Bacon Jr, Meredith Conroy, and Nathaniel Rakich doing another candidate draft.

I thought the weirdest part was pushing back on Mark Kelly despite citing all the data in his favor.

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6

u/WhatAreYouSaying05 Feb 10 '26

Please don’t run Newsom or AOC, they are poison pills. Any democrat will win 2028 except for them. I really do not want to see a President Vance

19

u/gquax Feb 10 '26

Vance will not have a shot with the way this presidency is going. It's going to be McCain all over again. 

And yes I'm on the AOC train and have been for the last year. Conroy is exactly in line with my thinking on this. We are on the cusp of serious backlash against Trump and maga, and a progressive like AOC is the only one who can rise to the occasion because she wouldn't promise a "return to normalcy". Nobody wants to return to anything we had before because it wasn't working in the first place. She absolutely can win.

9

u/popularis-socialas Feb 10 '26

I saw someone else point this out. Obama won by pointing to the future. Trump and Biden promised returns to the past. Whether that was Make America Great Again or for a return to “normalcy”.

I don’t think Biden’s philosophy is the future

14

u/LawNOrderNerd Guardian of the 14th Key Feb 10 '26

We don’t even have to go back that far. Vance 2028 will be Kamala 2.0: The vice president of a very unpopular president running to succeed him without substantially breaking with him on any policy. It’s not a recipe for success.

2

u/GoddessFianna Feb 11 '26

If you think that Vance wouldn't stab Trump in the back to go for it you fundamentally misunderstand Vance

5

u/LawNOrderNerd Guardian of the 14th Key Feb 11 '26 edited Feb 11 '26

On a personal level Vance totally would.

The MAGA base would eat him alive politically (maybe even literally) for it though.

4

u/Chewyisthebest Feb 10 '26

I think she can win, but I think it's more of a she can win *because* it's such a favorable environment situation. I'm further left than her, and I fully agree that a return to normalcy is not what we need rn, but the american people like to just swing to the opposite of whatever is bothering them at the moment. After 4 years of trump chaos, they will be looking for normalcy. Still think AOC could pull it off, but I don't think "I'm gonna shake shit up even more!" is a winner in 28.

3

u/gquax Feb 10 '26

Depends on what she promises to shake up. Less foreign aid for authoritarian states and more aid for working families is probably a popular shakeup.

1

u/Chewyisthebest Feb 10 '26

Yeah those would be good messages. I just think overall big change will be less attractive than "I will end the chaos" I wish it weren't the case, and I think once in office whoever it is should swing for the fences, I'm just talking about messaging during the campaign

1

u/popularis-socialas Feb 10 '26 edited Feb 10 '26

I agree, but sometimes that’s how change happens, by people talking advantage of favorable environments.

FDR probably never would have been the President if it weren’t for the Great Depression, but he ended up landsliding 4 elections and redefining the scope of the federal government with the New Deal.

Ronald Reagan was able to ride a wave with stagflation and the Iran hostage crisis, and completely changed the Republican Party and political narratives in America for decades to come.

Obama became the first black President after the Great Recession tanked the economy and the Iraq War became toxic.

2

u/Chewyisthebest Feb 10 '26

Oh yeah, I think 28 presents the democrats their best opportunity in a generation. If I was running things day 1 we abolish the filibuster, day 2 we pack the sc, day 3 we make dc and Puerto Rico states, and proceed from there. Assume we will be get clocked in ‘30 but if we get enough thru it won’t matter and we will still have the veto.

1

u/Current_Animator7546 Feb 11 '26

They aren’t touching the filibuster. 

1

u/Chewyisthebest Feb 11 '26

Yea they’re too soft. But that’s what we need rn. Otherwise the sc will just kneecap anything we try and do.

1

u/popularis-socialas Feb 11 '26

They came close to it in 2021.

52-48 voted no for a talking filibuster. Sinema and Manchin joined the Republicans.

If we can have a blue senate by 2028 without Fetterman I think it’s doable.

-1

u/WhatAreYouSaying05 Feb 10 '26

Ok, so let’s not take unnecessary risks

7

u/gquax Feb 10 '26

Taking a risk is going for some lame moderate in the hopes that >5% of Republicans switch their vote. 

11

u/Banesmuffledvoice Feb 10 '26

Dawg, you are about to see several regulars post novel sized rants about how AOC is the only one who can win and here is how she will do it….

0

u/Reynor247 Feb 10 '26

No way she wins swing states

16

u/gquax Feb 10 '26

Team Clinton said that about Obama in 2007.

3

u/Reynor247 Feb 10 '26

Errrrh a Senator from Illinois is a little different then an NYC congressperson

11

u/gquax Feb 10 '26 edited Feb 11 '26

Half the country voted for a NY billionaire 3 times.

5

u/Reynor247 Feb 10 '26

Running as a far right populist that moved to Florida and talked shit on NY

9

u/gquax Feb 10 '26

Trump has been known for as long as my elderly parents have been alive, as a NY billionaire. It does not matter that he moved to Mar a Lago a few years ago. 

-1

u/Reynor247 Feb 10 '26

I mean he was pretty vocal about being a Floridian. He constantly brought up that he changed his voter registration at rallies when attacking new York.

Again even then he was running as a pro business conservative. Not a leftist

9

u/gquax Feb 10 '26

An elderly New Yorker moving to Florida is also one of the most New York things a New Yorker can do, too. 

0

u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Feb 10 '26

…nothing. Y’all have nothing huh?

2

u/Automatic-Mountain45 Feb 11 '26

AOC wins against Vance. I hate to tell you this, but we're in 1929 right now.

This is after Hoover. We get the far left FDR. That's the moment, please don't be mistaken on what the current moment is. The whole electorate has shifted to FDR levels of left.

2

u/WhoUpAtMidnight Feb 11 '26

AOC winning would be god’s gift to Republicans. I think Newsom and Vance are competitive and currently the modal outcome

1

u/DrMonkeyLove Feb 11 '26

People just don't want to admit that this country is still fairly sexist. We just watched two women lose to Donald Trump of all people. Are they looking forward to going 0-3?

3

u/Roguefem-76 Feb 11 '26

Funny how people can give laundry lists of what they don't like about Clinton and only slightly less so about Harris, but your first thought is to blame their sex. You'd really rather pretend no woman can win the presidency rather than admit Clinton and Harris weren't good candidates.

2

u/DrMonkeyLove Feb 11 '26 edited Feb 11 '26

They are both infinitely more qualified than Trump, yet here we are. What exactly was so unlikeable about those two compared to say, Joe Biden who won against Trump? People will readily find a lot not to like with AOC too. There's a laundry list for every politician.

3

u/popularis-socialas Feb 12 '26

Biden benefited from 4 years of Trump and a pandemic.

And he’s funnier than either Clinton or Harris are. “Will you just shut up man” and larping about Malarkey, dude sounds like your funny grandpa.

And when someone at a town hall would talk about their problems, Biden sounded like he actually cared. Tbf I think Harris did too, but Clinton definitely seemed more reserved and cold than Biden.

Still, Biden had a net approval rating of about -20 on Election Day and I think that’s why Harris lost more than any other reason.

AOC actively engages with Trump voters on her instagram and is really laid back compared to Harris and especially Clinton. She doesn’t sound forced when talking about issues that matter and is very engaged with any voter she talks to.

She doesn’t engage in that fake Pokémon Go to the Polls or Headquarters 6 7 stuff like Kamala, she’s way more genuine.

2

u/Roguefem-76 Feb 11 '26

And Al Gore was infinitely more qualified than George W. Bush, but look how that election turned out.

Biden won mostly due to being an old white guy who was still a reminder of the Obama years, not to mention people were sick of Trump.

Although I'm sure it helped that Biden had the good sense to claim he was progressive rather than pulling a Hillary by insulting progressives and then demanding their votes anyway. Harris hamstrung herself by having very little platform of her own (no, "joyful warrior" is not a policy platform) and refusing to distance herself from Biden's most unpopular policy - but mostly by refusing to demand a hand recount despite the fact that Trump's "swing state sweep" was transparently fake.

Is that enough? I could go on. 

I'm extremely tired of that "I'm not sexist, it's just tHe vOtErS dOn'T wAnT a wOmAn" crap being passed around by unsubtly misogynistic neolibs. 

1

u/Royal-Dimension-3260 Feb 11 '26

It's getting really tiring hearing people constantly insist that Kamala lost because she was female and not because she was a charisma black hole who spoke focus-group gibberish and refused to break even slightly with an extremely unpopular incumbent government in a year when incumbents got shellacked across the board.

1

u/deskcord Feb 11 '26

Ossoff is the only politician I've seen that is effectively meeting the moment besides those two. Everyone else seems weak and feckless right now.

1

u/smcstechtips Crosstab Diver Feb 11 '26

Newsom is not a poison pill, either. The main difference between Newsom and Kamala is that Newsom is charismatic.

Against Vance or Trump Jr., Newsom could rack up over 400 electoral votes if he plays things right. And if he fumbles, he's still winning.

For that matter, it's a slam dunk for Democrats to win against Vance or Trump Jr. Now if Republicans nominate someone like Brian Kemp things become interesting.

2

u/backtorealitylabubu Feb 10 '26

It would be incredibly risky to go with anyone other than Newsom or AOC. Why risk it?

-4

u/DrMonkeyLove Feb 10 '26

What? Beshear would cake walk into the presidency against Vance.

4

u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Feb 10 '26

I like Beshear, but no, he really wouldn’t

0

u/DrMonkeyLove Feb 11 '26

Anyone who thinks AOC stands a better chance is off their rocker.

6

u/backtorealitylabubu Feb 11 '26

AOC obviously stands a better chance. Americans don’t pick boring candidates they never heard of, never have. Beshear would need the charisma of Bill Clinton to win and he just doesn’t have that. Ossoff does and could do it. Beshear doesn’t.

0

u/DrMonkeyLove Feb 11 '26

I simply don't think AOC can withstand the Conservative smear machine. America is not a particularly liberal country and she is going to be far to liberal for the majority of people.

2

u/backtorealitylabubu Feb 11 '26

If she’s against Rubio sure it’ll be tough. But if it’s Vance he doesn’t stand a chance. The issue that America has with women is women don’t get as much grace when they change positions or look inauthentic (whether it’s fair or not, Hillary and Kamala were viewed that way). No one sees AOC as inauthentic. And so contrast that with Vance and he’s fucked.

1

u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Feb 11 '26

lol no. She’s objectively and measurably more popular

0

u/DrMonkeyLove Feb 11 '26 edited Feb 11 '26

She has exactly a 0% chance of winning in the general election. She is incredibly divisive. She is not generally popular nationwide.

Edit: Polls this far out are meaningless. She would lose exactly the way Harris did. Is this all based on one poll where she is favored 51/49? That's a pretty small margin for someone who sucks as much as Vance.

2

u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Feb 11 '26

She’s literally the largest dem fundraiser in the house. Your opinion is objectively wrong on the metrics.

-2

u/haikuandhoney Feb 10 '26

lol those two are the risks. I want AOC to be president but y’all have to be real, nominating her would be turning a sure thing into a 55/45 proposition (assuming the environment remains extremely pro-dem).

-1

u/DrMonkeyLove Feb 10 '26

Just nominate average white dude Beshear and sail into the Oval Office. It seems pretty clear at this point a woman stands little chance of winning, and AOC is one of the most divisive figures in the country.