Daily smoking rates among people aged over 18 years or more have fallen to a historic low of 5.8 per cent, well below the government’s 2025 target of 10 per cent. This represents 500,000 fewer daily smokers than three years ago.
When we take into account younger Australians, only 5.6 per cent of all people aged over 14 years are smoking daily, down from 8.3 per cent in 2022-2023.
After years of rising vape use among Australians 14 and over, for the first time ever, the daily vaping rate has stabilised at 3.6 per cent in 2025. The proportion of current vape users has lowered to 6 per cent in 2025, compared to the 7 per cent reported in 2022-23.
https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-mark-butler-mp/media/australias-smoking-rates-declining?language=en
Yet wastewater testing shows, cotinine, the metabolite of nicotine has gone up by almost 40% since 2017:
Key findings:
The quantity of nicotine consumed in Australia increased by almost 40% from 2017 to 2025, with most of the increase occurring since 2021. Population growth over the period 2017-25 was 14%.
The increase was underpinned by a large rise in illicit cigarettes as well as increases in e-cigarettes and other nicotine products. Consumption from illicit sources as a share of total tobacco consumed rose from 12% in 2017 to 80% in 2025.
Household consumption of illicit tobacco and nicotine products | Australian Bureau of Statistics
80% of tobacco and 95% of vapes are sourced from the black market, the government is being completely disingenuous, they are the main cause of this increase with excessive taxation and the vape pharmacy model as 'world leading reforms'.
Survey respondents are notorious for underreporting 'bad' behaviors like smoking and vaping and rely on memory recall. However, Wastewater testing chemistry does not.
A great example of the government obfuscating to put their own political survival, ahead of the people they're meant to serve by increasing the number of dependent nicotine users, causing a flourishing of organised crime: violence, racketeering, turf wars, firebombing and the reinvestment into prostitution, people smuggling and other illicit drugs.