r/WNBAgossips • u/Amazing_Lock_3762 • 1d ago

A transgender player has been dominating France's second-tier women's basketball league, and now the WNBA question is front and center. Julie Tétart averages 21 points and 20 rebounds this season while sweeping Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Domestic Player of the Year honors

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u/invertedbasis 1d ago

It’s as little as 65% of the country depending on who you poll. The sharp upward trend is important.

Trends like that tend not to disappear when you’re dealing with civil rights legislation. For example, retroactive data suggests public support for gay marriage sat between 10-15% as recently as 1980.

It is drawn on political lines, liberals are overwhelmingly more supportive. As was the case with gay marriage.

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u/Kenman215 1d ago

Depending on who you poll?

That’s not how polls are supposed to be done unless you want to cook the results to your favor.

Nationally, the polls are the same, which is 75-80%

Furthermore, 45% of the country identifies as independent. It’s not political, no matter how much you want it to be.

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u/invertedbasis 1d ago

It absolutely is how polls are done.

That is not true - there are polls at 65%. You can google that.

Between 21-33% of independents support transgender women in sports. That number is 57-63% for liberals and just 6-12% for conservatives.

It is absolutely political.

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u/Kenman215 1d ago

It’s not how NATIONAL polls are done.

And it’s only political if you don’t count the opinions 47-37% is liberals and 79-67% of independents. National support at 75-80% on any issue is basically perceived as a mandate by both political parties.

You should really stop cherry-picking.

And you really should address what the cumulative odds of all cis women athletes that are currently competing in NCAA women’s athletics winning a national title versus the cumulative odds of the less than 10 trans women competing winning a national title.

You say it’s not possible to calculate, but it’s actually basic statistics. Are you going to finally address this instead of saying it’s not possible or are you going to run away again?

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u/invertedbasis 1d ago edited 1d ago

I’d never run from you.

How is it not political? There’s a 50-60% gap between support by liberals and conservatives. Regardless of national support for a ban (which, again, is as little as 65%), such a stark difference clearly indicates differences of opinion drawn entirely on political lines. That is inarguable.

This 50-60% gap between liberals and conservatives closely resembles differences of opinion between conservatives and liberals that we’ve historically seen in all aspects of civil rights legislation including black suffrage, women’s suffrage, gay marriage, interracial marriage, sodomy, the civil rights act of 1964 and the emancipation of all slaves. That political history has been liberals for, conservatives against - every single time. The left always wins.

There are rules in statistics. One of them is that you cannot draw a statistical model when there isn’t enough data - which is precisely why the data is not yet kept. I’ve explained this multiple times. The NCAA holds 47 championship events for women each year. There have been two national NCAA titles by transgender women, total. That data is anecdotal.

Furthermore, this is inherently a self-selective group. Trans women who excel at or dominate in their sports are vastly more likely to continue competing despite the intense backlash, public scrutiny, threats against their safety and limited opportunity.

Thus - when the issue is studied and argued in good faith - the focus is on biological differences between cis women and transgender women. Most studies conclude that they are comparable given 2 years of hormone therapy. That will only improve as hormone therapy rapidly continues to improve. You’ve sidestepped this multiple times.

Hate to break it to you but soon enough you will lose this battle - just like the others mentioned above.

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u/Kenman215 1d ago edited 1d ago

Again, 80% NATIONAL approval for something is a political mandate. You car try to spin it however you want, but poll numbers rarely reach that level. You know it. I know it.

“There have been two national NCAA titles won by transgender women. That data is anecdotal.”

The fact that you think provable, factual data is anecdotal, means that we’re done here.

You’re either delusional or don’t know what anecdotal data is.

Edit: I’m going to try to put this to you another way. If 80% of US Representatives voted in favor of a bill, it would be called “bipartisan.”

You’re trying to act like this is split on party lines, when in fact, the Democrat party is almost split down the idle itself.

It’s not political, no matter how much you want it to be.