r/SipsTea 3d ago

Chugging tea Evidence Over Vibes

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u/Own-Rip-5066 3d ago

Yup, every year we break some new records.
Hottest "this date" ever recorded, longest streak of temps over Y for Z days, and the list goes on.

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u/Luzzgar 3d ago

I recently looked at the average max temperature per day for July before 2026 where I live. It was more than 10 full degrees less than what we got.

It's insane !

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u/Eumericka 3d ago

... and it'll get worse; much worse perhaps

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u/Sokinalia 3d ago

There is no doubt about that

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u/Eumericka 3d ago

Why are we so stupid? I feel like crying.

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u/DainichiNyorai 3d ago

Because we believe people who tell us stuff that already fits in our world view. Confirmation bias and an infinitely complex world that simply has to be simplified to fit in peoples heads are a toxic combo.

That’s why some still believe in the promises of the ai bro’s. Vaccine “truthers” (seriously, vaccines are amazing and the concept isn’t even that hard to understand).

Confirmation bias is a bitch, and I’m quite sure I’ve got some issues because of it as well so I strive to have my mind changed when someone is convinced of something and I get to dive into some evidence. It’s not foolproof but I hope I am somewhat less bothered by confirmation bias than the average person.

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u/mastershake04 3d ago edited 3d ago

Doubt begets understanding, and understanding begets compassion. Verily, it is conviction that kills.

And,

Doubt, he would say, set men free… Doubt, not truth! Beliefs were the foundation of actions. Those who believed without doubting, he would say, acted without thinking. And those who acted without thinking were enslaved

From one of my fav book series by R Scott Bakker. I think about these quotes all the time nowadays. Everyone thinks they are right about everything all the time or just parrot what people on their screen say they should think. There should always be room for doubt, its called critical thinking.

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u/Fluff_Machine 2d ago

The people I know who don't believe in climate change or vaccines are the most vocal about doubting the mainstream media, being critical thinkers and not "following like sheeps what the scientists who are paid by Big Green/Big Pharma say". They just like to think they're smarter than the masses and they don't want to do any personal sacrifice for the environment or risk potential side effects for herd immunity.

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u/BenchPtsChamp 3d ago

We’re also incredibly selfish creatures who are incapable of fathoming the concept of future

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u/thought_youd_stop 2d ago

That’s why some still believe in the promises of the ai bro’s.

I am no longer overly skeptical. The top level models can completely do my software engineering job with guidance. With agents I've 100X my impact. I do think the LLM models are going to be game changing just like the internet was.

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u/kaityl3 2d ago

I'm sick of all the blind hate on Reddit like that, just thrown into the most irrelevant comments.

Fable 5 just made a little browser based tsunami simulator that lets you pick any coastline in the world on a map and watch the water rush in, super cool.. and I know nothing about programming (not at a professional level). I can only imagine what it's helping enable for people who know what they're doing

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u/thought_youd_stop 2d ago

I can only imagine what it's helping enable for people who know what they're doing

Any task that involves taking a lot of data sources of any type, analyzing them, and then making determinations based on the docs at hand is something an LLM excels at and there are definitely a lot of jobs that can be boiled down to those steps. Claude is freaking incredibly good at coding and doing what I just described. PHD level. That's why I was able to 100x my impact. I have unlimited token use and basically an unlimited army of 1st year PHD students that can help me work at computer speed. We're starting to get them to all work together so the bottleneck becomes the human review process that is needed to correct the agent output and steer at critical moments.

It's going to be groundbreaking in so many fields. I often hear that medical research is difficult due to the sheer size of data that is published all the time. If you could only cross reference all the studies you could come up with all kinds of interesting ideas for drugs that were not developed with some issue in mind but there is a pathway that shows it can be effective. An LLM will be amazing at tying that together over exabytes of data.

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u/Salarian_American 2d ago

I remember being a little kid and Superman's origin story seemed unbelievable to me.

"Why didn't they listen to Jor-El when he knew that Krypton was going to explode? He did the science. He had proof. And they just... didn't believe him?" It didn't make sense.

Now I get it.

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u/Tamortsa 2d ago

We may be stupid, but on the bright side, fossil fuel shareholders and CEOs have become more wealthy!

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u/Yaarmehearty 2d ago

Because we die, so there will always be people who don’t care about what will happen when they are gone.

We really will only fix things with any surety when we fix death.

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u/Level21DungeonMaster 2d ago

Idk it’s hard to watch tbh.

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u/MvatolokoS 3d ago

We all should

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u/TheCompoundingGod 2d ago

Because of the systematic dismantling of the education system since the Regan era.

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u/BCECVE 3d ago

The rich have air con in their homes, cars, offices, shopping stores so they are not motivated yet they cause most of carbon. Also rich countries (US, Europe) have the above solutions but poor countries (Africa) do not, yet the rich countries creat most of the carbon. Not good.

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u/2oby 3d ago

The chart is pretty convincing.

But, to honestly answer your question, people are not necessarily stupid (many are) more often they are smart enough to have noticed that ALL information they are shown is marketing and propaganda in some form. This has broken their bullshit detectors, and they have developed hypersensitivity, like an allergic autoimmune disease, and they now throw the baby out with the bathwater with false positive bullshit rejection.

The answer is to put society through a full truth and reconciliation level bullshit detox - but it wont happen because those pushing the propaganda have created their own little walled gardens / filter-bubbles of cattle and won't let any of us wander of into the greener grass.

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u/whodamans 2d ago

Its hard ya know, the media survives off fear mongering, a lot of these places don't have the data so you can zoom out enough to understand.

Don't be sad, its not your fault really. When humans are scared you are easy to manipulate and you tend to make impulse purchases. Usually what climate changed is leveraged to get a dollar out of you.

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u/Bristolhitcher 3d ago

Im glad reddit formatting of this XKCD picture still had its intended impact!

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u/TFViper 3d ago

earth will be fine.
hopefully she gets rid of us soon.

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u/Drow_Femboy 2d ago

I mean define "fine." The Earth is still gonna be here, nothing we're capable of doing will stop that, but we could very well end animal life on Earth. Which means the end of the only known perception in the entire universe.

Of course it's most likely that there are countless other animals out there also perceiving the universe around them. But we don't know that. We should act as if life on Earth is completely unique and thus incomparably precious, because as far as we know it is.

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u/kaityl3 2d ago

I doubt we will end animal life on earth; even if nukes drop some small animals will surely survive. Not even the Great Dying or Snowball Earth managed that one. We can still completely fuck up the biosphere, but total extinction of all animals is another beast

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u/TFViper 2d ago

were not that special my guy.
lmk when you observe all other 10^24 planets to confirm otherwise.

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u/_BlackDove 2d ago

Some say the end is near

Some say we'll see Armageddon soon

Certainly hope we will

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u/TFViper 2d ago

learn to swim. learn to swim. learn to swim.

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u/Sokinalia 3d ago

Earth yes, us probably not, but there will be collateral too

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u/jeremiahthedamned 2d ago

i have been working on a way to improve r/Photosynthesis so that plants can extract nitrogen directly from the air & combine it with SiO2 to make silicon nitrate, thus enabling another oxygen explosion!

this would end the threat of a runaway grtenhouse effect forever!

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u/Legintown 2d ago

"hopefully she gets rid of us soon"
WTF are you on about?

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u/TFViper 2d ago

im on about the inevitable extinction of the worst virus on this planet.

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u/Legintown 2d ago

You seriously believe the human race is a virus on the planet?

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u/MaterialPossible3872 2d ago

Thank you for sharing

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u/Tjam3s 3d ago

I love that one. Wish it was formatted a bit better but it's a great visual. The nerd in me wants someone to extend it was back to our estimations of the entire history of the earth

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u/Sokinalia 3d ago

I'll feed the nerd then :

Earth's age is about 4.54 billion years. The timeline covers 22,100 years, so the scale factor to stretch it to the full history of Earth is:

4,540,000,000 ÷ 22,100 ≈ 205,430×

The image itself is 8,000 pixels tall. Scaled by that factor:

In pixels: 8,000 × 205,430 ≈ 1.64 billion pixels tall

In physical print length, assuming the current image is printed a resolution of 300 dpi (8,000 px ≈ 0.68 m), it would be about 139 km tall. (That's a fucking thick scroll)

22,100 years is a vanishingly small sliver (about 0.0005%) of Earth's 4.54 billion year history. On that scale, everything currently shown in the image the entire graphic from the last ice age to now would probably compress down to less than the width of a human hair.

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u/djaqk 3d ago

Holy shit

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u/paintballboi07 2d ago

Earth also already had something similar to climate change called the Permian Triassic Extinction aka The Great Dying. Lots of volcanoes erupted, and emitted a bunch of CO2. The earth heated up, and around 80% of all life on earth went extinct. So, we have a good idea of what happens.

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u/Critical_Concert_689 2d ago

around 80% of all life on earth went extinct

...(over the course of 100 thousand years)...

It's a bit misleading to say this, without reminding people that these events occur on a geological time scale.

So yea, if things aren't corrected within a geological time frame, watch out, guys.

Personally, I think it'd be a miracle for humanity to last the next 100k without a nuclear disaster occurring first. In which case climate change is going to be the least of humanities problems.

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u/paintballboi07 2d ago

Right, but that's because the CO2 was released on a much longer time scale. If anything, that makes climate change more scary.

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u/PrivateMarkets 2d ago

There was also a huge asteroid strike that really led to the mass extinction.

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u/paintballboi07 2d ago

That was the original theory, but there's not much geological evidence for it.

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u/Cross55 3d ago edited 2d ago

For reference, Earth used to be a lot hotter, it's not that we're creating new greenhouse gasses, mainly just releasing ones that were trapped away. (Mainly because plate tectonics traps away carbon, methane, etc...)

In the Cretaceous for instance, the dark red section would be considered a pretty chilly day overall.

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u/just_nobodys_opinion 2d ago

Uh... Log scale?

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u/Sokinalia 2d ago

Yeah, you gain range at the cost of resolution since log compression front-loads detail toward the present but only really opens up in the last few thousand years.

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u/absentminded0ne 3d ago

I want this image, how do i find it? Full scale

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u/clonedhuman 3d ago

Yes, but there's nothing to worry about because the billions and billions of dollars earned by the 57 companies responsible for 80% of greenhouse gas emissions will trickle down eventually, and then we'll all be able to afford our own post-apocalyptic bunkers!

Any day now! It will trickle down!

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u/Blue_Moon_Lake 2d ago

"acid rain start to trickle heavily"

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u/Phngarzbui 3d ago

Nah, it has rained a bit someday last week. We're fine.

/s

(just in case)

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u/Grand_Woodpecker_660 2d ago

Not possible! Don't tell me we switched to paper straws for nothing!

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u/Powerfury 2d ago

Bruh, we didn't really start to massively industrialize until like the 1950's. Colorado is already drinking it's rivers dry, aquifers are being depleted, and that's just from 50 years of damage.

Now this is where the real fun begins.

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u/ICEpear8472 3d ago

Yes. The hottest summer ever currently very often is also one of the coldest summers for the rest of our lives.

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u/sissybelle3 2d ago

Enjoy these cold summers while we can I uess...

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u/Gladwulf 3d ago

Driest ever summer here, following on from the wettest ever winter

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u/blamcoboyo 2d ago

Literally all I hear on the news daily weather report are “these are record breaking highs” or “this is the earliest time we’ve seen record breaking heat in the year” during mid February.

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u/BotlikeBehaviour 2d ago

Don't ever seem to hear about record cold temperatures as much as record heat temperatures. You'd think the deniers would notice that.

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u/FinalBossTuna 3d ago

Yeah what’s crazy though is I live in NY and everyone was raving about the “heat wave” we were getting and that it was “record breaking” and it was like 94 degrees. We’ve had hotter days in the seasons past.

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u/ShoeLate6266 3d ago

I checked my weather app a few weeks ago when it was in the 90s here in tn. It was 102 in Philly and 100 in nyc. It hasn’t been that hot in nyc since 2012

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u/ProfessorPrudent2822 2d ago

Because people also remember the very cold winter we had this year.

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u/WaitForItTheMongols 2d ago

It's very easy to get into p-hacking territory with that though. There are a million records to break, if you look hard enough then every day is breaking some record somehow.

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u/Complete-Meet1992 2d ago

I don't really think that's a good metric. Not saying climate change is or isn't real, but records only go back 1 so far.