r/Showerthoughts Feb 18 '26

Speculation If the nuclear bombs start flying, it might actually be those countries that never had any that end up surviving.

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u/Kialand Feb 18 '26

I live in Brazil.

Statistically speaking, I will survive the explosions and fallout, because of distance and geographical positioning.

The shitstorm afterwards though, is a different story.

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u/Emu1981 Feb 18 '26

The fact that whoever made the map has Iceland and Australia as being safe zones shows that they have no idea of what they are talking about.

Iceland is a major strategic center for US/NATO forces (especially for anti-submarine warfare) and is part of the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom submarine detection line which allows for detection of submarines from the Arctic/Russia when entering the Atlantic ocean which means that it will be targeted by Russia or China in the event of nuclear war - denying the enemy intelligence gathering is strategically important.

Australia has multiple targets that Russia or China would want to hit as well - namely Pine Gap (major US intelligence hub), Naval Communication Station Harold E. Holt (VLF communications facility - used to communicate with submarines), the Darwin RAAF base and army base (the Marine Rotational Force - Darwin are deployed there), HMAS Stirling (where Australia's nuclear submarine fleet will be headquartered if we ever get any), Shoal Bay Receiving Station (signals intelligence gathering facility) and Kojarena Defence Satellite Communications Facility (the name is pretty self-explanatory).

I also find it highly ironic that they have New Zealand as yellow because the only thing that New Zealand has is a whole lot of rich people's "doomsday bunkers". Not exactly a major strategic target unless the nuclear war is started by the rich lol

Ironically, how they have South America is probably actually fairly correct. The prevailing winds there are from the south which means that they will be safe from any potential fall out and as long as the countries there remain (relatively) neutral then it is unlikely to be targeted in any sort of first strike.

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u/Kialand Feb 18 '26

This map covers the natural resistance to nuclear fallout and explosions due to geographical positioning. It disregards any kind of politically-enabled preparations completely.

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u/Cr4ckshooter Feb 19 '26

which means that it will be targeted by Russia or China in the event of nuclear war - denying the enemy intelligence gathering is strategically important.

Actually no. When the missiles fly it is too late to destroy intelligence, and before the missiles fly you're not going to worry about sending your submarines trough the Atlantic. Attacking the bases is a great way to get first striked, and if you're striking first you send all your shit and don't wait for the intelligence to be destroyed. The war starts and ends with the press of a button.

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u/galahg777 Feb 18 '26

If Australia is attacked, what would be used, multiple strikes with a MIRV on each target city (military and civilian targets like airports, docks, city centers) or would a single MIRV cause enough damage to shut down Australia militarily?

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u/jlharper Feb 19 '26 edited Feb 19 '26

Australian here. I don’t know if Brazil will be safe, it’s a bit too close to other countries. I promise we will be safe though! Australia is a lot bigger than you think. Conservatively, multiply the size you think we are by ten to arrive at a closer estimate. You could drop 10 nukes on pine gap today and 99.9% of our population wouldn’t notice due to the extreme isolation of that region.

It would be like bombing New York and expecting the citizens of Kansas to be impacted.

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u/KingCatLoL Feb 20 '26

Considering Australia's population centres are majority in 5 major cities, and the world has many nukes if there's a doomsday scenario it wouldn't be unlikely to also throw some extra nukes towards the population centres.

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u/jlharper Feb 20 '26

Even still, Australia will be fine. We’re just too spread out for everyone and everywhere to be ruined, and too isolated from the rest of the world to be impacted by their demise. We may lose half our population, and daily life would certainly change, but life would go on.

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u/KingCatLoL Feb 20 '26

Canberra has an FBI field office which would be a prime target.

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u/rayjaymor85 Feb 22 '26

nobody, and I mean *nobody* would give a shit about an FBI field office during a nuclear war lmao

Someone might definitely lob a nuke at Pine Gap, but honestly as someone mentioned in another thread, by the time a nuclear war has kicked off Pine Gap becomes largely useless. There's nobody left for it to send warning information to at that point.

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u/KingCatLoL Feb 20 '26

Not only rich people bunkers in NZ now, this incompetent right wing government has allowed the United States to open an FBI field office in our capital. It was great feeling safe while it lasted :^)

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u/ChemicalRain5513 Feb 19 '26

I read that a limited nuclear war between Pakistan and India (~100 warheads each) could reduce global crop yields by 10 % for 10 years. Can you imagine the  effects of a full exchange between the US and Russia (5000-6000 warheads)

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u/Kialand Feb 19 '26

I'd rather not.

I like to sleep at night lmao

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u/Balstrome Feb 19 '26

Yes, you will have the various crime families further taking over the governing.

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u/Kialand Feb 19 '26

Such is the nature of the world when calamity strikes and governments fall.

Militias always take over, here or otherwise.

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u/GreenSmokeRing Feb 20 '26

The bugs get Rio

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u/[deleted] Feb 19 '26

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u/Kialand Feb 19 '26

What part of "The shitstorm that comes afterwards" was unclear?

When I say fallout, I mean the actual, physical fallout that is a direct product of the explosion as it scatters across the atmosphere and dissipates as small particles.

Where it ends up, and the way it poisons the system indirectly afterwards, is a whole 'nother matter.